All posts by Jim Muttram

Autopilot issues

Today’s 300 mile journey to Norfolk and back gave me a chance to test the latest over-the-air software update 2019.40.2.1. This one was meant to bring more confident automatic lane changes among a few other things.

My experience today was pretty mixed. Navigate on autopilot was not available for the first half of my drive for some reason and the navigate was, but auto lane changes other than the car’s recommended ones weren’t working at all.

On the other hand when it was working navigate on autopilot was much more snappy in recommending a lane change into both a faster and a slower lane. It felt much more like a human driving.

Hopefully we’ll be getting a patch soon. If it was all working it would be very much more functional that when I bought the car six months ago.

Note: in Europe the rules mean we have to confirm autopilot actions unlike in the US.

Charging

The great thing about electric vehicles is that they can be charged at home overnight. Just as we all do with our mobile phones you get used to the routine of charging and that way the car, and the phone, are always ready. For most people, most of the time this is going to be all the charging you need. It’s cheap and even cheaper if you have a tariff offering cut-price overnight electricity.

If you are out and about locally, say in a local shopping centre for instance, there are often charging points available, which are often free, which can be used to top up.

EV charging at a retail park in Charlton, South London

However, sometimes you are going to travel further and that will often mean charge en route. How frequently, and indeed if, you need to charge will depend on things like how long the journey is and what the range of your car is.

Older and smaller EVs may have a range of 100 miles or so; bigger and more modern cars may have ranges of up to 300 miles.

And it also matters what the weather is like. EVs are more efficient in the warm and dry and less so in the cold and wet, though the effect is nothing like as dramatic as myths would have you believe.

Needless to say, once you get used to it, charging on the road is not much of an issue. The GOMs (“guess-o-meters”) on EVs do a good job of predicting what the range of the current journey is likely to be and to provide map directions to the nearest charger as part of the in-car navigation. Rapid chargers then can recharge a car in typically 20-40 minutes, time for the loo and something to eat and drink.

Ecotricity Rapid chargers like this are available at most motorway services and other companies are busy building their own at sites on popular routes

And then there is the overnight stay where sometimes it is possible to get access to overnight charging – either through a standard plug which provides a charge, though a slow one, or at a “destination charger” (similar to the system most of us have at home) but provided by a hotel, pub, restaurant or whatever.

The number one issue for most people thinking about switching to electric cars is charging. Once you have an EV you realise things are much simpler than you thought.

Tesla changes

One thing you have to get used to as a Tesla owner is that there are going to be changes in the cars and sometimes it will feel like you missed out.

Between the time I ordered by car and it was delivered Tesla announced what is known as the Raven update to Model X and Model S cars. My car went into product on April 5th and on April 23rd Tesla announced an upgrade. From that point the cars being made would have active suspension, longer range, faster charging and a few other things. I had just missed the boat.

But that is how it goes with Tesla – it’s a fast moving company and things change. Prices go down after you’ve ordered your car, or, like me, improvements are made that you miss out on.

However, since almost everything on the car is software controlled, you also get updates unexpectedly. My car got Sentry Mode (which makes all the cameras record suspicious activity around your car), numerous computer games, Netflix and YouTube playback and a ream of updates to autopilot which make the car better and better. Even the windscreen wipers are getting better with the “Deep Rain” AI continually improving performance in different rainy conditions. I didn’t order any of these things.

Some day all cars will be made this way.

Waiting for the car

I bought my Model X on March 28th and it was scheduled for production on April 5th.

I had been warned by the Tesla owners I follow on YouTube and Twitter to expect a frustrating wait and I wasn’t disappointed. The Tesla app which you download when you buy your car provides the updates on the status of the car, and the wait for changes in status is agonising.

The next update was a few days later on April 9th when I was given my VIN number (that happens when the car is scheduled for production and is the thing that ties all your future dealings with Tesla together).

April 12th and my app notifies me that my Tesla is now in production. Now for the long wait.

The app have a cute visualisation of your future car, which somehow makes it worse

April 18th and my car is apparently built and in the delivery system en route to the port. Teslas are built in Freemont, California and travel by train to the port at Houston, Texas.

On April 30th I thought I ought to get ready so I drove to the service centre at Dartford to buy a Tesla Wall Connector (they are not chargers and technically the charging is done in the car) and a thing called a Chademo adapter which is needed to connect to Chademo rapid chargers (the only thing available near where I needed it in North Norfolk).

On May 7th I got the notification that my car was on the ship bound for Tilburg and after what seemed an age, on May 25th the app informed me the car was finally at Tilburg in the Netherlands ready for reassembly and then transport by car transporter to Dartford.

On Monday June 10th I finally got the word that the car could be picked up the following Friday.

All did not go to plan on Friday….

I arrived as agreed at 11.30am for my pick-up and hand-over only to find that they weren’t expecting me until the following week. There had apparently been a mix up in communications but the staff were excellent and located the car (stored at Blue Water) and said they could get it ready by 4pm if I was happy to come back, which I was.

I intended to leave just after 3pm to make sure I was in plenty of time, but I had a call about 2.45pm saying there was a large diesel spillage on the M25 and the Dartford tunnel was closed as a result and that traffic would be worse than usual so I should leave now.

It took me over three hours to go 20 miles, the last hour within a mile of the service centre. But the hand-over staff stayed behind in an otherwise deserted building and I finally picked up my car at about 6.30pm.

I should have had a leisurely hand-over and had everything explained to me but with no time it was just a question of getting in and driving off. Lucky I’d watched all those YouTube videos!

Hermes, as I call my new car, with the lights on near the showroom door

All’s well that ends well.

The Decision-making process

Why did I decide to buy a Tesla Model X? Well, I definitely decided that I wanted an electric car in January 2019 and there were relatively few cars available at that time. Mercedes had announced that they would be launching the EQC at some stage, and as a current (happy) Mercedes owner that would seem an obvious choice.

However, there were two big constraints: I travel to Norfolk at least every month which is 150 miles away. As charging options are extremely limited there I needed a car with a big range; I travel with two dogs, two parolets, five tortoises and up to five adults(!), so I need a lot of cargo space.

When the details of the EQC emerged it was obvious that it was a mid-sized SUV and, while it was likely to have the range I needed, it was short of space.

Mercedes EQC just didn’t have enough room

That left Tesla as the only manufacturer who had cars big enough and with enough range to fit the bill. On closer inspection, the Model S, the family saloon, didn’t have a big enough cargo space, so the Model X was the only choice.

There were some positives and negatives to weigh up:

On the positive sides, I loved the fact that Tesla was building electric cars from the ground up and their integrated approach to hardware and software seemed to me the future.

On the negative side, the nearest service centre was in Dartford, 30 minutes drive away on a good day, compared to a Mercedes service centre a short walk from my house (which meant I could drop my Merc in for a service and walk home).

It turns out, though, that the negatives are not nearly as significant as you might think. Electric cars need next to no servicing – Tesla used to suggest an annual service but now just relies on the cars to report when they need work. Because they have many fewer moving parts, there is much less to go wrong, and things like regenerative braking means brake disks and pads are unlikely to need changing for years. The only things you regularly need to worry about are windscreen washer fluid and wiper blades, and tyres.

So, that was it – after a trip to the Tesla showroom in Canary Wharf and a short test drive, I took the plunge and ordered my car.

New Year’s Resolution

Last year, one of my New Year’s Resolutions was to buy an electric car. I’d been thinking about it for a long time, but there were various reasons why the options available were not practical for me.

For one thing I need a lot of space in a car as I need to transport children, dogs, tortoises and now parrots to Norfolk and back on a regular basis!

For another, the cottage we have in Norfolk does not have off-street parking – it’s down a very narrow lane which leads to the sea. This means over-night charging in Norfolk is out of the question, and the county seems to lead the pack when it comes to lack of availability of rapid chargers – the only ones which are really practical for significant charging.

And then, in the middle of the year, things changed. I found out that an enlighted small business in North Walsham, a few miles from Overstrand, had installed a Polar fast charger. Suddenly I had options.

img-1723261818
Polar fast charger at Kelly Clarke Motor Services, North Walsham. Photo: ZapMap user BatVan

So the search for the right electric car began.

Incoherence in Government

A story in this morning’s Guardian perfectly illustrates the policy incoherence that runs to the heart of the current government.

It concerns Britain’s National Cycling network, a linked chain of over 16,500 miles of cycleways which are used by half the number of people who currently use the trains each year.

Sustrans, the organisation responsible for the network, says it would cost £2.8bn to bring the paths up to scratch, as many are potholed or damaged, have difficult obstructions on them, or rejoin highways at difficult or dangerous places.

Meanwhile, we have a Government facing many significant challenges such as meeting the climate change goals, currently likely to be missed, and a National Health Service struggling to cope in the face of an ailing population made sick by obesity and dirty air.

One obvious part of the solution to these challenges is to reduce the amount we drive significantly and to encourage the population to exercise more.

So you would think getting the population on their bikes, as some of our Continental neighbours do so well, would be an obvious part of the plan.

More than half of the UK population lives within a mile of their nearest route and 4.4 million people used the Network last year, making 786m trips.

And each year the network saves the UK economy nearly £90m through reduced road congestion, according to Sustrans. Its health benefits save the NHS the equivalent of 2,206 nurses’ salaries, and leisure and tourist trips contribute £2.5bn to local economies, the charity claims.

The benefits are therefore obvious.

The Government’s response? In his recent budget, the chancellor, Philip Hammond, pledged £30bn for road improvements targeted primarily at motorists.

What about cycling?

Jesse Norman, the government’s cycling and walking minister, said: “This report shows that more needs to be done to make [the network] fully accessible, and that’s why earlier this year the government dedicated £1m to support initial work repairing and upgrading sections of this popular network.”

Doesn’t quite stack up, does it?

Amazon warehouse accidents total 440. What’s the story?

According to a BBC news story “Amazon warehouse accidents total 440”.

While this is obviously bad news for the people involved, is it good or bad compared to the industry as a whole?

The tenor of the story implies it is bad news.

But then the details of the story don’t quite back that up.

Firstly, the 440 figure is the total of four years worth of data collected by the GBM union from local authorities via freedom of information requests. The figure for the last complete year, 2017-2018, was 149.

Is this number high? Well, Amazon says it has 25,000 people employed in the UK and the Health and Safety Executive says the average non-fatal accident rate in the warehousing and transportation support industries category in 2016-2017 was 1,577 per 100,000 workers.

Assuming the rate has stayed about the same the following year, for Amazon to have had an average accident rate it would have recorded 394 accidents. So on these data you could say Amazon is a substantially better than average performer on accidents.

The BBC story quotes the GMB saying : “the actual numbers were probably higher, because some local authorities were unable to provide details of incident reports.”

That may well be so, but frankly they could be double and it still would not be much of a story.

Climate disaster and how to avoid it

Today the IPCC came out with its sternest warning yet about the dangers the world faces if global warming isn’t held to 1.5degC.

The thing is, we already know how Governments can do this. They tax the things they want less of and incentivise the things they want more of. This is simple and it works.

Take electric cars. If you want sales to grow fast bring in an effective incentive scheme. Norway leads the field on this. Its electric car policy saw a huge increase in the sales of electric cars. In 2015 22% of new car sales were electric and this is expected to grow to 30% in 2020. This was achieved through low road tax, VAT exemption, free parking for EVs and access to bus lanes, for example.

Or alternative energy.

Solar energy went from virtually nothing to 3% of the UK’s total energy generation between 2010 and 2017, driven by reducing costs for photovoltaics but mainly by Government incentives in the form of the Feed In Tariff

Government actions matter. Concerned about the rising cost the Government changed the policy in 2016 with the result that solar installations plummeted by 74% year on year in March 2016. Solar will continue to grow because the economics are getting better, but more slowly that it would have otherwise.

Windpower is another case in point. Antipathy to onshore wind has effectively stopped dead development of new onshore wind, the cheapest form of renewable energy. Offshore wind is still growing strongly, though, and is now bidding for contracts below that offered to nuclear projects.

Governments all have a balancing act to perform, trading off the immediate needs of the electorate, without whom they will not remain in power, and the longer-term needs of the country. 

To encourage the growth of more environmentally-friendly transport options – cycling, walking, public transport, electric cars – raising fuel taxes is a sensible policy. And yet petrol prices are a sensitive issue with the public so we have not had a rise in duty for nine years

The best hope of avoiding the short term trap is the law. The Climate Change Act of 2008 was a great example of this – in effect the Government willingly making a rod for its own back.

This law obligates the Government to reduce CO2 emissions to at least 80% below the 1990 baseline. This allows citizens and environmental groups to hold the Government’s feed to the fire if they don’t live up to this challenge. This doesn’t eliminate the short term decisions which will have a potential long-term detrimental effect, but it does make it far more likely that course correction is forthcoming. 

It will be interesting to see what this month’s budget tells us about the balancing act.

Picking stocks

Many years ago when my boys were young teenagers we used to have to take them off every Saturday to play Warhammer, the strategy game you play in person with others with characters you bought and lovingly painted yourself. It became a big obsession with both of them, rivalling even Pokemon and I got to know Games Workshop well.

I spoke to colleagues at work and unless they also had boys of a similar age they were oblivious to the whole phenomenon.

These Warhammer characters were not cheap and the rules of game were so obtuse that it was amazing so many teenage boys became so hooked (or maybe not, knowing teenage boys).

Anyway, I figured this was an interesting business model so I bought a few shares. Today the company was featured in The Economist as the best performing stock in the FTSE 250.

I may have had to wait 15 years, but I can really pick a stock – this one has risen by over 526%.